OFRMOnce Upon a Farm, PBC

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🟡RSI(14): 46 — Nelson read cyclical exhaustion and renewal in price oscillation, not just trend direction.
• 🟡Stochastic %K: 43 — A cycle nearing its low end offers more room to move than one already stretched to its high end.
• 🟡Williams %R: -57 — A second, independent read on the same overbought/oversold question.
• 🟢CCI(20): -62 — An extreme reading here is exactly the kind of cyclical extension Nelson's method watched for.
• 🟢Bollinger %B: 0.30 — Position within the recent trading range, a purely statistical cycle marker.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🟢RSI(14): 46 — An extreme, sustained RSI is one signature of a crowd already 'all in.'
• 🔴News sentiment score: 100/100 — Near-universal enthusiasm in the coverage is exactly the pattern that preceded every mania Mackay documented.
• 🟢12-period rate of change: -4.7% — A sudden, sharp acceleration is more consistent with mania than with steady, sustainable demand.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🟢RSI(14): 46 — An extended oscillator reading is one more sign of a late-cycle position, not early.
• 🟡3-month relative strength vs. S&P 500: -16.6pp — Wild outperformance or underperformance vs. the broad market often marks a crowded, late-cycle trade.
• 🔴News sentiment score: 100/100 — Marks: risk is highest exactly when everyone agrees things look great.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🟡Spread across the other methodologies' scores: ±21 points — Real, independent methodologies converging on a similar view is weak evidence of a genuine, findable edge — wide disagreement suggests there isn't one.
• 🟡Average conviction away from neutral: 15 points — A near-neutral average is exactly the case Malkiel/Bogle expect most stocks to be — no strong signal to act on.
• 🟡Average real-data availability: 60% — A case built on real, available data is at least a fair test — one built on missing data is no case at all.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🟡ADX(14): 19 — Schwager's wizards consistently avoided directionless chop — a real, tradeable trend is the precondition.
• 🟢Reward/risk to resistance vs. support: 1.53 — Schwager's central lesson: trade setups with real, favorable reward-to-risk, not just a hunch about direction.
• 🟢Volume vs. 20-day average: 1.37x — Real conviction shows up in volume — a setup without it is a much weaker bet.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🟡Composite risk score: 42/100 — Marks' central argument is that risk-awareness matters more than raw return-seeking.
• 🔴News sentiment score: 100/100 — Marks is explicitly wary when sentiment is near-universally positive — that's exactly when expectations get hardest to beat.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🟡Composite risk score: 42/100 — Loeb's rule was capital preservation first — missing a gain is far better than absorbing a large loss.
• 🔴Daily volatility (ATR): 5.1% of price — Loeb watched volatility closely — a wild swinger is a much harder position to cut losses on cleanly.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🔴ADX(14): 19 — A strong trend (not a directionless chop) is exactly the setup Livermore waited for.
• 🔴MACD histogram: -0.06 — Positive momentum confirmation supports staying with the trend.
• 🔴12-period rate of change: -4.7% — Livermore read price momentum itself as the most reliable signal available.
• 🟢Volume vs. 20-day average: 1.37x — Livermore looked for volume confirming a move, not a thin, unconvincing rally.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🔴Recent insider transactions: 0 buys, 6 sells — Whether management is putting its own money behind the growth story is a real, hard-to-fake signal.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🔴Dividend payments on record: 0 — Smith's central finding was that stocks with reinvested dividends beat bonds over time — a real dividend record is the evidence.

Fact → Principle → Simulation

• 🔴Daily volatility (ATR): 5.1% of price — Housel's core point: the boring, low-volatility holding is the one you can actually stay invested in long enough to compound.